95L On The Verge Of Becoming The Season's First Cyclone Recent data from a reconnaissance aircraft that was investigating 95L earlier today suggests that the system has developed a closed surface circulation, albeit that it remains broad at this time. However, the reason that the system has yet to become a tropical cyclone is the lack of organized convective activity. At the moment, shower and thunderstorm activity is being hindered by the presence of an upper-level trough currently locate...

Satellite imagery and surface observations both suggest that the circulation associated with 95L has become better defined over the past few hours, albeit that it still remains relatively broad. Atmospheric conditions currently aren't ideal for tropical cyclogenesis due to the presence of an upper-trough located to the northwest of the system which in turn is providing for about 20-30 knots of wind shear as well as subsidence to the northwest of the circulation. However, in about 24 hours...

A tropical wave that continues to interact with the monsoonal trough in the western Caribbean has become slightly better organized on satellite imagery this afternoon. A banding feature is evident on satellite imagery which is likely being enhanced by trade winds flowing in from the east-southeast converging with the flow of the monsoonal trough that flows in from the west-southwest. Something worth noting is that the CIMSS 850mb vorticity product suggests that the vorticity maximum assoc...

Hurricane IgorLatest visible satellite images reveal that Igor remains a very large and relatively powerful high-end category 2 hurricane. A microwave satellite image from a little earlier this morning concluded that Igor had begun an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC). This can be noticed quite clearly on satellite imagery as there is a lack of an eye. The inner core of Igor has also slowly been eroding away, and although the microwave image only caught half of the circulation, all that th...

Tropical Update

Earl is now racing off towards the NE as a strong tropical storm. Satellite imagery suggests that the system has begun to make an extratropical transition with an expanding wind-field particularly to the south. Earl is expected to continue to race off towards the NE with a decrease in forward speed in 24-36 hours. By then, Earl should be fully extratorpical as it is absorbed by a larger and more powerful extratropical low pressure area. Nonetheless, interests along eastern Canada and points northward should monitor the progress of Earl.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Hurricane Earl taken from the International Space Station. The image was taken on September 2, 2010.

 

Tropical UpdateEarl has begun to move over cooler waters and increasing vertical wind shear, thus it has begun to weaken and is barely clinging on to hurricane status. Latest satellite images of Earl conclude that the system is quite large, latest data from the reconnaissance aircraft suggests that tropical storm-force winds expand a large area. So, even though Earl continues to weaken, tropical storm-force winds will likely be felt across a large area of New England, the Canadian Maritimes, and...

I'm quite sick today (that's why I didn't attend school and am posting a blog entry in the morning) so please bare with me.Tropical UpdateEarl continues to chug along as an intense category 4 hurricane towards the North Carolina coast. Latest satellite images of Hurricane Earl reveal a well-defined eye with an intense ring of convection surrounding it. Latest reconnaissance missions into Earl conclude that the strongest winds are located mainly in the western quadrant, this is good news as ...

Latest UpdateTropical Storm Colin--------------------------------------------11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 6Coordinates: 27.1°N 66.9°WMaximum Sustained Winds: 45 mphMovement: ENE at 7 mphMinimum Central Pressure: 1007 mbClassification: Tropical StormInvest 93L--------------------------------------------8:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 6Coordinates: 15.1°N 35.2°WMaximum Sustained Winds: 30 mphMovement: WNW at 15mphMinimum Central Pressure: 1010 mbClassification: DisturbanceCurrent Watches And WarningsA...

Tropical UpdateI'm watching several areas of disturbed weather this evening. Starting from the highest chance of development to the least, I'm going to begin with the remnants of Tropical Storm Colin. Latest satellite images suggest that ex-Colin continues to become better organized developing intense thunderstorm activity over its low level circulation. However, this thunderstorm activity isn't self sustaining as it is being supported by the diffluent flow aloft courtesy of the TUTT. MIMI...

Latest Update00:00 UTC (8:00 P.M EDT) Coordinates: 10.1N 37.4WMaximum Sustained Winds: 30mphMinimum Central Pressure: 1007mbClassification: LowTropical UpdateSatellite imagery continues to show that 91L is becoming increasingly organized and is well on its way to becoming a tropical depression. As noted on satellite imagery, 91L has begun to ignite organized deep flares of convection over its surface circulation. Convection is key for cyclogenesis as latent heat released by it warms the uppe...

Tropical UpdateA well-defined tropical wave exhibiting a weak "V" signature and some broad cyclonic curvature near Belize and the Yucatan peninsula is showing some signs of possible organization. Although the wave is near land it shouldn't have much of an affect on it as land only disrupts a circulation, which this wave evidently does not have. Looking at the last visible loops of the day along with the Belize radar broad cyclonic curvature is evident, but at the moment there are no signs...

Tropical UpdateThe Atlantic remains relatively quiet with no immediate threats to develop. I will however list every single area of concern in the basin from the highest chance to develop to the least.To start off there is a surface trough draped across Cuba and the Caribbean sea near 82.5?W. This trough is interacting with an upper low to the north and consequently firing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Visible satellite loops nor 850mb vorticity graphs suggest that this area is ...

Latest Update10:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 24Location: 28.0°N 86.7°WMax sustained: 30 mphMoving: WNW at 17 mphMin pressure: 1014 mbTropical UpdateBonnie remains a tropical depression even though several Reconnaissance aircraft missions have not found west winds. The lack of missing west winds suggest that the surface circulation is open and ill-defined. The Reconnaissance aircraft is also having a very tough time finding the circulation since the lowest pressure is 1014mb. I assume that the...

Tropical UpdateThe tropics have finally awoken somewhat after what seemed to be a 1 week hiatus. To start off, I’m watching an area of broad low pressure located in the SW Caribbean producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The area has been showing slow signs of organization with the development of a surface low along with some slow consolidation of convection. In the upper levels there is an anticyclone placed atop the location of the low causing less shear and improved ou...