THE XTREME WEATHER BRANDED GEAR IS HERE » and now available in OUR STORE! Get it now so you'll be ready for the first chase of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season! 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Names » Alberto - Beryl - Chris - Debby - Ernesto - Florence - Gordon - Helene - Isaac - Joyce - Kirk - Leslie - Michael - Nadine - Oscar - Patty - Rafael - Sandy - Tony - Valerie - William 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Names » Andrea - Barry - Chantal - Dorian - Erin - Fernand - Gabrielle - Humberto - Ingrid - Jerry - Karen - Lorenzo - Melissa - Nestor - Olga - Pablo - Rebekah - Sebastien - Tanya - Van - Wendy 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Names »   Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred PLEASE REGISTER TO ACCESS ALL AREAS OF THIS SITE » ONCE REGISTERED CLICK ON XTREME WEATHER CAM TO INTERACT WITH OTHER MEMBERS IN OUR CHAT ROOM OR SEND A MESSAGE VIA OUR MESSAGING SYSTEM. TAKE A JOURNEY BACK THRU TIME IN OUR "INFAMOUS STORMS" SECTION. YOU CAN CREATE AND CUSTOMIZE YOUR OWN BLOG - POST ENTRIES FOR OTHERS TO COMMENT ON. TELL US YOUR WEATHER STORIES! » ONCE YOU'RE A REGISTERED USER, YOU CAN TELL US ALL ABOUT YOUR WEATHER EXPERIENCES IN "YOUR STORIES". WE LOOK FORWARD TO HEARING ALL ABOUT IT! 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE NAMES » ARLENE - BRET - CINDY - DON - EMILY - FRANKLIN - GERT - HARVEY - IRENE - JOSE - KATIA - LEE - MARIA - NATE - OPHELIA - PHILIPPE - RINA - SEAN - TAMMY - VINCE - WHITNEY 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Names » Alex / Bonnie / Colin Danielle / Earl / Fiona Gaston / Hermine / Igor Julia / Karl / Lisa Matthew / Nicole / Otto Paula / Richard / Shary Tomas / Virginie / Walter FUTURE STORM NAMES
Banner
Donate $10 or more and receive an ad-free membership...

You are not logged in.

Invest 95L likely to develop into a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow morning

Posted by on in Weather
  • Font size: Larger Smaller
  • Hits: 1502
  • 0 Comments
  • Print
  • PDF

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video. Please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in the video, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer.

Find us on Youtube Find us on Facebook



Our area of disturbed weather in the southeast Bay of Campeche has been tagged invest 95L, and is slowly organizing this morning. The system remains broad, with a low-level circulation center that may not yet be closed, and convection is not taking a structured pattern yet. However, pressures at the buoy in the middle of the BOC are falling as winds increase, and 95L will likely continue to gradually strengthen today. Upper-level conditions remain marginal as an upper trough to the northwest is still impinging dry air and southwesterly wind shear upon 95L, but this upper trough will be moving out of the way during the next 24 hours, and 95L may find itself beneath very favorable upper-level conditions by tomorrow afternoon. A recon plane is scheduled to investigate 95L later this afternoon if it is not canceled by the NHC, so we will hopefully get a better look at this system.

Given the current rate of organization, I see no reason why this shouldn't be at least a tropical depression before landfall near Tampico, Mexico sometime Thursday morning. The BOC's coastline shape is notorious for helping infant systems wind up fast, so despite the broadness of this monsoonal depression, we may very well see Tropical Storm Arlene form out of this before landfall. Overall, heavy rainfall will still be the main issue for central America and Mexico, though Mexico will be mostly happy to see such rain.

I give 95L a high chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours.

We shall see what happens!

Invest 95L Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Invest 95L Model Tracks:



Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):

0
Tagged in: tropical weather
Trackback URL for this blog entry.

Comments

Follow Us
  • Twitter: thextremewx
  • Facebook: pages/The-Xtreme-Weather/142875679093761
  • YouTube: thextremeweather
  • RSS Feed: The Xtreme Weather
  • Technorati: thextremeweather
Featured Bloggers

Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.

Levi32 is a future star in the weather world that you may be familiar with from Weather Underground. His forecast and analysis are incredibly good.

Please CONTACT US if you'd like to be a featured blogger.
Poll Du Jour
Which hurricane was the worst?
 
Weather Underground RSS Feed for JeffMasters's Blog
  • 93L in Eastern Atlantic Growing More Organized
    An area of disturbed weather located near 10°N, 33°W at 8 am EDT Monday, about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, was designated Invest 93L by NHC early Monday morning. This disturbance is a more serious threat than Tropical Depression Two of last week, and has the potential to develop into a strong tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Visible satellite loops...
  • Disturbance off the Coast of Africa a Potential Threat to the Lesser Antilles
    An area of disturbed weather near 11°N, 31°W, about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it heads west at 10 - 15 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Visible satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that the disturbance had only a minor amount of spin. Infrared satellite images showed that the system's heavy thunderstorm activity...