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Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office. If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low qu...
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Seeing as how most of the info has been blogged over and over already. Ill post pics and updates I get. This is video from ISS of the storm. It is massive even from space. http://www.slideshare.net/nasa/hurricane-irene-viewed-on-thursday-by-space-station-cameras This is a full disk image from 8/26/11 showing IRENE http://www.flickr.com/photos/24662369@N07/6083128930   Here is a good and simplistic map of Irene. http://www.nytimes.com/projects/hurricanes/#!/2011/Irene?hp   Now this is my local we...
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  On Sunday, August 21, 2011, Irene was only a tropical storm, and the TRMM Precipitation Radar reveals that it had an impressive hot tower that reached over 9.5 miles high (15.75 km). Strong radar signals, perhaps from large ice particles are shown in red at the base of the hot towers, which suggests strong updrafts were present in order for the ice particles to have time to grow large. Strong rain had yet to completely encircle the eye, as is typical of tropical storms.     On Tue...
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NHC Forecast Track
Good Morning,Hurricane Irene has weakened slightly over the past 12 hours now with sustained winds of 105 MPH with gusts to 125 MPH. Irene is forecast to make landfall on the outer banks of North Carolina as a powerful Category 2 Hurricane. I believe some strengthening is possible if Irene can complete her eye wall and mix out some of the dry air that has  been entrained in the system from the Continental U.S. After landfall in North Carolina Irene is forecast to once again emerge over water nea...
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[video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Gd95b3d_Bs 500x500]     Don't let your guard down with Irene. Just because you may have woke up this morning and Irene is "only" a Cat 2 Hurricane, this is a large and powerful Hurricane. The storm surge will be higher then normal due to astronomically higher tides. Irene will have Cat 3 storm surge with it up and down the East Coast. If you are being asked to leave and evacuate please do so and heed the local officials warnings. My track forecast rem...
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Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office. If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low q...
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Good Morning, Today's update discusses Hurricane Irene which is a Category 3 on the Saffir Simpson Scale. Irene is currently bashing the northern Bahamas with heavy rain and fierce winds. Irene has made the turn more to the north-northwest over the last several hours. She should continue in a northerly direction while continuing to strengthen as she makes her approach to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Thereafter she is forecasted to make landfall once again in the New England states ...
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Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office. If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low q...
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[video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9VNw7tR4Hk 500x500]
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Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office. If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low qu...
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I recently had an opportunity to drive over Lake Somerville dam.  Lake Somerville is a reservoir formed by the damming of Yegua Creek, which is a tributary of the Brazos River.   Lake Somerville is not a terribly large lake, but it is used to provide flood control for communities downstream (including Somerville, which lies just to the east of the dam), as well as water and recreation.  Lake Somerville lies within the CWA for NWS Houston/Galveston, and is one of the reservoirs tracked in their w...
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I am making a bold prediction for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season.  The first named storm of the year, Andrea, will hit the Houston-Galveston area.  How can I make such a prediction? Let us take a look back in history. The era of modern tropical cyclone naming in the Atlantic basin began in 1979, when the six rotating list of alternating men's and women's names began. Nineteen Eighty-three marked the first use of list #5, which is the same list (which changes due to retired names) that will b...
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Earlier today, the NHC declared a new invest, 95L, for a system attached to a front well of the east coast of the US.  ATCF now indicates that invest has become Tropical Depression 6: ATCF   It seems likely this system will become Tropical Storm Franklin during its fairly brief passage over warm water:   UPDATE: While I was typing this, Advisory 1 was issued for TD 6, and they do forecast at least a possibility of becoming a tropical storm.
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Brazos Watershed
This past weekend, we made a trip to San Antonio, TX (we live in a western suburb of Houston).  This trip crosses several rivers, major and minor, as well as numerous streams (including what, in my opinion, is one of the most unique place-names in Texas: Woman Hollering Creek.)  I was rather looking forward to driving through squally weather from Tropical Storm Don, but, alas, that was not to be.  But I did get to observe the effects of the drought on waterways.  (unfortunately, no pictures)   F...
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Data coming in from the hurricane hunters indicate that Tropical Storm Emily has likely formed near Martinique, just east of the Caribbean Sea.  This has not been officially declared yet.
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As recon data comes in, it is almost certain that Tropical Depression 4 has formed, and it may even be Tropical Storm Don already.  I expect tropical storm watches will be issued shortly for parts of Texas.   My own best guess is that it will make landfall somewhere from roughly Matagorda Bay to High Island late in the week, as a high-end (65-70mph) tropical storm, or possibly as a minimal hurricane.  Note that this was not an official forecast, just my own guess.   UPDATE   The first advisory f...
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As seen on the main page, we have Invest 90L in the Atlantic, to the east of the islands.  Very long range (1 week plus) are putting this somewhere in the GOM in the next week to week and a half.  The ridging that has been in place over the Gulf states for the last few months (currently displaced north, and causing the extreme heatwave) supports a trek into the western Gulf, in my opinion.  That is, should the storm actually form and take the path through the Caribbean, as opposed to moving more...
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Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office. If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low qu...
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Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office. If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low qu...
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  • 93L in Eastern Atlantic Growing More Organized
    An area of disturbed weather located near 10°N, 33°W at 8 am EDT Monday, about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, was designated Invest 93L by NHC early Monday morning. This disturbance is a more serious threat than Tropical Depression Two of last week, and has the potential to develop into a strong tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Visible satellite loops...
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    An area of disturbed weather near 11°N, 31°W, about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it heads west at 10 - 15 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Visible satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that the disturbance had only a minor amount of spin. Infrared satellite images showed that the system's heavy thunderstorm activity...