THE XTREME WEATHER BRANDED GEAR IS HERE » and now available in OUR STORE! Get it now so you'll be ready for the first chase of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season! 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Names » Alberto - Beryl - Chris - Debby - Ernesto - Florence - Gordon - Helene - Isaac - Joyce - Kirk - Leslie - Michael - Nadine - Oscar - Patty - Rafael - Sandy - Tony - Valerie - William 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Names » Andrea - Barry - Chantal - Dorian - Erin - Fernand - Gabrielle - Humberto - Ingrid - Jerry - Karen - Lorenzo - Melissa - Nestor - Olga - Pablo - Rebekah - Sebastien - Tanya - Van - Wendy 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Names »   Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred PLEASE REGISTER TO ACCESS ALL AREAS OF THIS SITE » ONCE REGISTERED CLICK ON XTREME WEATHER CAM TO INTERACT WITH OTHER MEMBERS IN OUR CHAT ROOM OR SEND A MESSAGE VIA OUR MESSAGING SYSTEM. TAKE A JOURNEY BACK THRU TIME IN OUR "INFAMOUS STORMS" SECTION. YOU CAN CREATE AND CUSTOMIZE YOUR OWN BLOG - POST ENTRIES FOR OTHERS TO COMMENT ON. TELL US YOUR WEATHER STORIES! » ONCE YOU'RE A REGISTERED USER, YOU CAN TELL US ALL ABOUT YOUR WEATHER EXPERIENCES IN "YOUR STORIES". WE LOOK FORWARD TO HEARING ALL ABOUT IT! 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE NAMES » ARLENE - BRET - CINDY - DON - EMILY - FRANKLIN - GERT - HARVEY - IRENE - JOSE - KATIA - LEE - MARIA - NATE - OPHELIA - PHILIPPE - RINA - SEAN - TAMMY - VINCE - WHITNEY 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Names » Alex / Bonnie / Colin Danielle / Earl / Fiona Gaston / Hermine / Igor Julia / Karl / Lisa Matthew / Nicole / Otto Paula / Richard / Shary Tomas / Virginie / Walter FUTURE STORM NAMES
Banner
Donate $10 or more and receive an ad-free membership...

You are not logged in.

Tracking the Tropics: Watching Invest 95L in East Atlantic

Posted by on in Weather
  • Font size: Larger Smaller
  • Hits: 1046
  • 0 Comments
  • Print
  • PDF

Good evening everyone! Back again after a break enjoying friends and family for once and ready to get back into the swing of things forecasting once again.

As usual, I'm tracking the tropics this time of year and we definitely have something that bares watching way out there in the Eastern Atlantic off Africa. Over the past few days a tropical disturbance within the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) had been brewing and coming off the African continent. Well yesterday morning (since its past midnight here in South Florida as I'm writing this) the NHC designated this disturbance as Invest 95L.

The latest fix on the system places the "center" of this broad low pressure at around 11 N and 27 W this evening. Based upon this fix, the system has been and continues to move westward tonight and appears will continue doing so during the next 24 to 48 hours. Current estimates place the pressure at 1009 mb and wind speeds around 30 mph. In looking at observations in the region, mainly from ships and buoys, pressure isn't falling significantly and winds remain relatively light, so development isn't taking place at this time.


Figure 1 - Water Vapor Imagery for Invest 95L (Source: NAVY/NRL Tropical Cyclones)

Analyzing satellite imagery tonight shows a very broad low pressure system with rather disorganized and unimpressive convection as the disturbance continues to battle moderate wind shear at around 20 kts. In looking at the water vapor imagery above, you can see dry air doesn't seem to be a problem with this system as this disturbance has a good moisture field and is broad enough to prevent entrainment of dry air and dust to the north.

Now what does the future hold for Invest 95L? This is a very good question and one thats difficult to answer so far out at sea and so broad and disorganized at this time. For right now, the computer models suggest that the disturbance should begin taking on a more northerly component to its track soon and be moving NW in the coming week while gaining strength to become either Tropical Storm or Hurricane Danielle. It appears the computer models all suggest that a relatively deep trough for this time of year will emerge off the United States in about a week and will erode the Bermuda High down enough to allow for the system to move northward coming close to Bermuda by late next week.


Figure 2 - Latest Computer Models for Invest 95L (Source: Weather Underground Tropical/Hurricane)

Given the current state of the disturbance, recent trends, and current steering patterns, I am not in total agreement with the computer models at this time. Reason for this is that most models strengthen this system too quickly for the current disorganized state of the disturbance and that the computer models all show a northerly component to the track almost immediately which has yet to happen and appears unlikely to happen for the next couple days as the Azores High has strengthened and built in some throughout the day. Once this system organizes further and consolidates better, then we shall have a better idea as to the future. For now, its all speculation as to the future track and strength this disturbance will have.

Stay tuned for further updates as the situation develops.

 

0
Tagged in: tropical weather
Trackback URL for this blog entry.

Comments

Follow Us
  • Twitter: thextremewx
  • Facebook: pages/The-Xtreme-Weather/142875679093761
  • YouTube: thextremeweather
  • RSS Feed: The Xtreme Weather
  • Technorati: thextremeweather
Featured Bloggers

Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.

Levi32 is a future star in the weather world that you may be familiar with from Weather Underground. His forecast and analysis are incredibly good.

Please CONTACT US if you'd like to be a featured blogger.
Poll Du Jour
Which hurricane was the worst?
 
Weather Underground RSS Feed for JeffMasters's Blog
  • MATMO Approaches Taiwan Coast as Atlantic TD#2 continues Westward
    (By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

    Latest SAT and Radar imagery shows Typhoon MATMO approaching the Taiwanese east coast and is currently about 65 NM S-SE of Taipei. With a NW movement at 16 Kts, MATMO should hit the east coast within the next hour or so. Radar indicates strong convective bands have been impacting the Island for the last 4-6 hours.
  • Atlantic Invest 92L Likely Depression
    (By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

    SPECIAL UPDATE

    Latest VIS and IR imagery suggests INVEST 92L is now a Tropical Depression, though NHC has not yet ‘called it’.



    Fig 1: Latest VIS image of INVEST 92 about 1,200 NM east of the Lesser Antilles.

    The low level circulation near 11.1N / 43.5W (about 1,200NM east of...