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Update on future Caribbean/Gulf storm #1
Here's the results of the 12Z GFS for 9/17/10.
Cyclogenesis occurs in the deep SW Caribbean (which seems a tad odd, but that is not important at the moment):
This is on September 25th. As the GFS run continues, instead of impacting the Yucatan as the 6Z run did, the future hurricane passes between the Yucatan and Cuba:
This is September 30th. The strengthening hurricane continues through the Gulf of Mexico, seeming to head for a landfall in Louisiana:
That is on October 2nd. At this time there is a fairly strong ridge over the central plains, but there is a small weakness located over Alabama which would seem to offer a route to the NE for this cyclone(probably a major hurricane). However, the cyclone starts drifting to the SW, and by the end of the run winds up here:
That is October 3rd, and marks the end of the GFS. At this time, the ridge over the plains has either moved east or split in two, as there is a weakness now located over Nebraska, and again offering a route for the cyclone to move north, this time to Texas. Based on history that would be unlikely, as hurricanes in the western Gulf are rare after mid to late September. However, there is no reason to believe it can't happen, especially since La Nina is supposed to lead to warmer winters in this part of the country, which may change things around for tropical cyclone landfalls, as well.
- Hurricane Season 2010 - Weather Saturday, May 29 2010 12:27:40 AM
- 93L could be TS Alex by tuesday night,92L still needs to be watched as it could still form!! - Weather Monday, June 21 2010 01:19:55 PM
- Naptime over for the Atlantic Ocean! The tropics come alive, starting with 93L. - Weather Tuesday, June 22 2010 03:49:56 AM
- Tropics starting to heat up - Weather Wednesday, June 23 2010 11:39:52 AM
- 93L finally starting to organize and possibly developing a surface low WSW of Jamaica! - Weather Wednesday, June 23 2010 07:25:58 PM
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Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.
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